Trend spotting : Is it a Science?

Apparently Ann Mack, from JWT in the US, issues a set of annual trends for the year ahead.

For 2009 some of her predictions were

1. Print would decline

2. Digital TV would grow

3. Email would decline

4. Mobile would grow

Stepping out of the media, she also predicted that

1. Sous Vide at Home would grow. This involves cooking from vacuum packed fresh food, a method used by restaurants

2.  Pisco Sour : A Latin drink would be a big global favourite

3. Home stays, pod hotels and monastery stays would become big

The author of this article picks issue with the first lot of predictions stating that picking what is already going on and calling it a trend doesn’t make it a prediction.

And of course the last 3 predictions just didn’t come true.

Now Ann has made predictions for 2010, some of which include

• Zach Galifianakis (an American comedian)
• Boeing 787 Dreamliner
• “Deficit Neutral” policies

The author points out that these are not trends as they are already in the works…I agree with the last 2 but I had never heard of Zach before.

Predictions which the author is sure will never come true

• Bacon in Cocktails:
• Dry Shampoo:
• Fermentation:

And you know what, I agree.

And there’s one prediction that the author believes will come true, but evidence at hand suggests that at least half of it will not be true. Liverpool FC and Fernando Torres will be huge. (Apologies John).

With so many variables at play, be it medicine, anthropology, technology, environment, advertising trend spotters should probably stick to trends as it affects advertising/communications or run the risk of being so generic that you run the risk of irrelevance or even gross errors, as we have just seen.

2010 : Opportunities, business drivers

With the new year on us here are a few articles on what we can expect to see in the coming year.

Top 10 business opportunities in the coming year.

Steve Tobak, the author of this article, suggests these as industries that are likely to grow in the coming year.

1. Green power.
2. The senior market.
3. Discount retail.
4. Local business.
5. Higher Education.
6. Parental outsourcing.
7. Health and wellness.
8. Texas.
9. Affordable alcohol.
10. Pets.

No real surprises in that list is there?

While the lists will vary by market, I think one huge continually growing opportunity is the mobile phone space.

I also think there is opportunity in the travel industry. With so many more people traveling, be it for fun or work, that is an industry that will rebound from 2009 and will see some innovation in the coming years.

10 leadership drivers for 2010

Here’s an article on what will drive business this year

The economy

Demographics

Globalisation

Social responsibility and the environment

Change as a way of working

Customer focus

Simplicity of process and structure

Performance and engagement

Alignment

Leadership

So there you go, my first post of the new year. Identifying the opportunities and the drivers that will guide success.

Wishing you a very very successful year.

Thank you for reading my blog.

Harish