Home > Uncategorized > Trend spotting : Is it a Science?

Trend spotting : Is it a Science?

Apparently Ann Mack, from JWT in the US, issues a set of annual trends for the year ahead.

For 2009 some of her predictions were

1. Print would decline

2. Digital TV would grow

3. Email would decline

4. Mobile would grow

Stepping out of the media, she also predicted that

1. Sous Vide at Home would grow. This involves cooking from vacuum packed fresh food, a method used by restaurants

2.  Pisco Sour : A Latin drink would be a big global favourite

3. Home stays, pod hotels and monastery stays would become big

The author of this article picks issue with the first lot of predictions stating that picking what is already going on and calling it a trend doesn’t make it a prediction.

And of course the last 3 predictions just didn’t come true.

Now Ann has made predictions for 2010, some of which include

  • Zach Galifianakis (an American comedian)
  • Boeing 787 Dreamliner
  • “Deficit Neutral” policies

The author points out that these are not trends as they are already in the works…I agree with the last 2 but I had never heard of Zach before.

Predictions which the author is sure will never come true

  • Bacon in Cocktails:
  • Dry Shampoo:
  • Fermentation:

And you know what, I agree.

And there’s one prediction that the author believes will come true, but evidence at hand suggests that at least half of it will not be true. Liverpool FC and Fernando Torres will be huge. (Apologies John).

With so many variables at play, be it medicine, anthropology, technology, environment, advertising trend spotters should probably stick to trends as it affects advertising/communications or run the risk of being so generic that you run the risk of irrelevance or even gross errors, as we have just seen.

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